This is an exciting time, not just for Obama supporters, Democrats and Americans but the whole World and history itself. Of course, the outcome of the contest is far from over. What is important about this development is not that Obama is a great dude with the right policies. With minor differences his policies are the same as those of Clinton and other lame ass Democrats. Don't expect any radical change even if he is becomes POTUS.
Obama is evidence of the momentous changes taking place in American/World society. History is hardly made by individuals, its about processes. What we see here taking place is evidence of a process that began long ago and is far from over. An Obama Presidency will mark a milestone in this process and in the narrative of history hundreds of years from now.
The 'Long Nineteenth Century', as defined by Eric J. Hobsbawm began with the French Revolution in 1789 and ended in 1913 as the Great War began. Current historians believe 9/11 marked such a point for the dawn of the 21st century. I believe that gives too much importance to Islamist Terror and the War on Terror. It's doesn't have that much fuel and will be over within a decade. Especially if American Imperial policy is reversed with the next change in guard it doesn't seem likely to last and have long term effects.
For marking longer periods, let me quote extensively from Noam Chomsky:
"1992 brings to an end the 500th year of the Old World Order, sometimes called the Colombian era of world history, or the Vasco da Gama era, depending on which adventurers bent on plunder got there first. Or "the 500-year Reich," to borrow the title of a commemorative volume that compares the methods and ideology of the Nazis with those of the European invaders who subjugated most of the world. The major theme of this Old World Order was a confrontation between the conquerors and the conquered on a global scale. It has taken various forms, and been given different names: imperialism, neocolonialism, the North-South conflict, core versus periphery, G-7 (the 7 leading state capitalist industrial societies) and their satellites versus the rest. Or, more simply, Europe's conquest of the world. By the term "Europe," we include the European-settled colonies, one of which now leads the crusade; in accord with South African conventions, the Japanese are admitted as "honorary whites," rich enough to (almost) qualify. Japan was one of the few parts of the South to escape conquest and, perhaps not coincidentally, to join the core, with some of its former colonies in its wake. That there may be more than coincidence in the correlation of independence and development is suggested further by a look at Western Europe, where parts that were colonized followed something like the Third World path. One notable example is Ireland, violently conquered, then barred from development by the "free trade" doctrines selectively applied to ensure subordination of the South -- today called "structural adjustment," "neoliberalism," or "our noble ideals," from which we, to be sure, are exempt."
~quoted from Year 501. Find it here: http://www.zmag.org/chomsky/year/year-contents.html
This era is not coming to an end in 2008 no matter who wins, even Kucinich. But I do believe that this era is coming to an end. Both with endogenous changes in the West and the rise of powers who do not fit the narrative of the discourse; i.e., East Asia et al. There are of course two ways for this era to end: War in the context of the Oil clock; and peaceful transition to a more equitable distribution of power, wealth and a wholesale shift to a more sustainable econo-ecological system. I expect no socialist revolutions.
The evidence for endogenous change is Senator Obama. His credible candidacy and hopefully presidency means that there has been a momentous change in the discourse. The glass ceiling will be broken and Americans can once more be proud of being the first, in this case to elect a leader from an oppressed minority. The discourse of power is primarily about defining the boundaries of inclusion and exclusion. By consummating the break from the discourse of the Old Order it will mark a milestone.
We will mark the tiny 21st century with Obama coming to power in 2008. Historians might even mark end of the Old World Order with it.
My radical friends will no doubt sneer at my excitement: Nothing will change, they say. Well nothing might, so there are no gains for radical change. I want to say there exist other things of importance. Like the narrative of history. I believe it will also create the possibilities for real change, what with Edwards as Vice President. Moreover, even if nothing changes, it makes the current system much much more tolerable and civilized.
Gandhi was asked what he thought of Western Civilization, 'It might be a good idea'.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Monday, August 13, 2007
Making another million
Do you feel like a million today? Here is a million and some change - http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/iraq/iraqdeaths.html
How does that feel?
I will not rant about the ludicrous injustice of this. Just look at the number again if you aren't already in the mood.
I want to talk about the idiocy of the ostensibly hard nosed economists/foreign policy experts and other miscellaneous cultural managers.
Lets talk about the economists first. There is an internal structure to the discipline - a caste system. The theorists (basically failed or greedy mathematicians) are the brahmins, the econometricians are the Vaishyas (the moneyed upper caste in the Caste System) - in the present context white collar technicians for Corporate America and the like (Yes, corporate America uses caps to describe itself) and the empirical/development economists who are the shudras (blue collar). Of course, the Marxists and others who deviate from the doctrine are the untouchables.
As in any doctrinal system there is not much wrong with the logic - the theorists ensure it is mathematically consistent, rather the doctrinal task assigned to economists consists of completely irrational acceptance/imposition of certain premises. Basically that human beings are fundamentally greedy, outcome oriented and care only about their own interests. So one has all these nonsensical paradoxes about why people vote, why they care about African poverty, why do they offer to share rather than take everything for themselves? Of course, all these deviations are discovered (kinda like white people discovering the New World) by empirical economists who are not allowed to speak in front of the theorists (thats the key). The indoctrination, as usuals, works - it has been found that economists are more selfish that others.
Most of the economists are doing their research on why people deviate from their conception of rational actors. (What the fuck is rational about pathological, insensitive jerks who don't care about anything other than themselves?) You would not believe the extent of literature in, for example, evolutionary game theory in this genre. The usual finding - in the long run it doesn't make sense for people to be pathological, what an amazing discovery!
The other central strand of propaganda is downright deception. Everyone who cares to look knows that almost all the industries are oligopolies (or have administered prices and subsidies). Yet in every single analysis they assume perfect competition which gives them the results that are desired of them obviously.
The most important secret in economics is the obvious fact that ALL economies that grew rich did so under very protectionist, state capitalist regimes. Europe, East Asia - There are no exceptions. The havoc wrecked on Mexico, Bolivia et al by imposing obviously terrible policies was criminal. I hold the economists culpable.
Let me clarify - there is no conspiracy and not all economists toe the line. This is how it works: If you have the wrong ideas you get weeded out at some point - getting admission into grad school, getting published, getting tenure track positions, research grants and getting tenure. The system is stable precisely because it is not rigid. Just like keeping a volume of Chomsky along with 20,000 volumes of intellectual masturbation, outright propaganda and mind candy suffices to make Barnes and Noble appear impartial.
I'll get to the Foreign Policy and Area Studies (Orientalists later). Sorry about the plethora of parentheses.
How does that feel?
I will not rant about the ludicrous injustice of this. Just look at the number again if you aren't already in the mood.
I want to talk about the idiocy of the ostensibly hard nosed economists/foreign policy experts and other miscellaneous cultural managers.
Lets talk about the economists first. There is an internal structure to the discipline - a caste system. The theorists (basically failed or greedy mathematicians) are the brahmins, the econometricians are the Vaishyas (the moneyed upper caste in the Caste System) - in the present context white collar technicians for Corporate America and the like (Yes, corporate America uses caps to describe itself) and the empirical/development economists who are the shudras (blue collar). Of course, the Marxists and others who deviate from the doctrine are the untouchables.
As in any doctrinal system there is not much wrong with the logic - the theorists ensure it is mathematically consistent, rather the doctrinal task assigned to economists consists of completely irrational acceptance/imposition of certain premises. Basically that human beings are fundamentally greedy, outcome oriented and care only about their own interests. So one has all these nonsensical paradoxes about why people vote, why they care about African poverty, why do they offer to share rather than take everything for themselves? Of course, all these deviations are discovered (kinda like white people discovering the New World) by empirical economists who are not allowed to speak in front of the theorists (thats the key). The indoctrination, as usuals, works - it has been found that economists are more selfish that others.
Most of the economists are doing their research on why people deviate from their conception of rational actors. (What the fuck is rational about pathological, insensitive jerks who don't care about anything other than themselves?) You would not believe the extent of literature in, for example, evolutionary game theory in this genre. The usual finding - in the long run it doesn't make sense for people to be pathological, what an amazing discovery!
The other central strand of propaganda is downright deception. Everyone who cares to look knows that almost all the industries are oligopolies (or have administered prices and subsidies). Yet in every single analysis they assume perfect competition which gives them the results that are desired of them obviously.
The most important secret in economics is the obvious fact that ALL economies that grew rich did so under very protectionist, state capitalist regimes. Europe, East Asia - There are no exceptions. The havoc wrecked on Mexico, Bolivia et al by imposing obviously terrible policies was criminal. I hold the economists culpable.
Let me clarify - there is no conspiracy and not all economists toe the line. This is how it works: If you have the wrong ideas you get weeded out at some point - getting admission into grad school, getting published, getting tenure track positions, research grants and getting tenure. The system is stable precisely because it is not rigid. Just like keeping a volume of Chomsky along with 20,000 volumes of intellectual masturbation, outright propaganda and mind candy suffices to make Barnes and Noble appear impartial.
I'll get to the Foreign Policy and Area Studies (Orientalists later). Sorry about the plethora of parentheses.
Monday, July 23, 2007
Another apoclyptic dream
I had another apocalyptic dream last night. This one was not directly about a nuclear attack. Rather it was plainly obvious that it was set in a scene of a grim nuclear holocaust.
Some of my friends and family were with me. We were running up the stairs of a great auditorium. There was smoke and the building was shaking as it would in an earthquake. We knew that an eruption was going to occur from the ground below and we were running to the top of the building to escape the onslaught. Apparently, the radioactive waste had reached the water table under the city and was exploding on contact resulting in sulphuric eruptions on the ground above. The biosphere had become unstable and there was no safe place to go. Running away from danger seemed very everyday like. That is not to say that there was no adrenalin rush. We were running for our lives. As soon as we reached the penultimate floor, the earth below the building erupted, we managed to get onto the top floor just in the nick of time. Giant waves of molten concrete looking sulphuric radioactive earth rushed up the building in an eruption. It came up to the top floor and cooled off immediately, mid air, a second before we would've been engulfed. The raped earth formed abominable shapes around us, silently screaming at us. I have never been as relieved and horrified all at the same time.
The dream may be fantastic but the potential of a nuclear holocaust in our lifetimes is a real possibility. When the three curves intersect in three decades: Oil production is expected to peak in 2040 (and then fall while demand rises inexorably) exactly when China is expected to overtake the US as the World's biggest Economic power. The Third curve is the peak of nuclear proliferation - it is expected that dozens of states will have nuclear capability by then, including many in the Middle East and Japan. The Washington planners are pretty explicit that they will not tolerate any 'potential challengers' to their 'full spectrum strategic dominance of the globe' (See the last National Security Document). The whole point of the Iraq war is to take control of the oil fields and to use that as a strategic weapon against challengers (no military or industry functions without oil). The Oil Wars in a sense already began when the US conquered Iraq ( yes, conquered) but this is just warm up. Wait for the real action in just a few decades.
If there are historians in the 22nd century, they will call this period of human history, the Oil Age. Perhaps, they will look back with a sense of tragedy and surprise at the lunacy of the 'rational' planners in Washington today.
Some of my friends and family were with me. We were running up the stairs of a great auditorium. There was smoke and the building was shaking as it would in an earthquake. We knew that an eruption was going to occur from the ground below and we were running to the top of the building to escape the onslaught. Apparently, the radioactive waste had reached the water table under the city and was exploding on contact resulting in sulphuric eruptions on the ground above. The biosphere had become unstable and there was no safe place to go. Running away from danger seemed very everyday like. That is not to say that there was no adrenalin rush. We were running for our lives. As soon as we reached the penultimate floor, the earth below the building erupted, we managed to get onto the top floor just in the nick of time. Giant waves of molten concrete looking sulphuric radioactive earth rushed up the building in an eruption. It came up to the top floor and cooled off immediately, mid air, a second before we would've been engulfed. The raped earth formed abominable shapes around us, silently screaming at us. I have never been as relieved and horrified all at the same time.
The dream may be fantastic but the potential of a nuclear holocaust in our lifetimes is a real possibility. When the three curves intersect in three decades: Oil production is expected to peak in 2040 (and then fall while demand rises inexorably) exactly when China is expected to overtake the US as the World's biggest Economic power. The Third curve is the peak of nuclear proliferation - it is expected that dozens of states will have nuclear capability by then, including many in the Middle East and Japan. The Washington planners are pretty explicit that they will not tolerate any 'potential challengers' to their 'full spectrum strategic dominance of the globe' (See the last National Security Document). The whole point of the Iraq war is to take control of the oil fields and to use that as a strategic weapon against challengers (no military or industry functions without oil). The Oil Wars in a sense already began when the US conquered Iraq ( yes, conquered) but this is just warm up. Wait for the real action in just a few decades.
If there are historians in the 22nd century, they will call this period of human history, the Oil Age. Perhaps, they will look back with a sense of tragedy and surprise at the lunacy of the 'rational' planners in Washington today.
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